The Obama phenomenon!

When could he deliver? So ask Americans who see a potential president in Barak Hessein Obama, a senator from Illinois and a charismatic contender for the Democratic presidential nomination. They wrote him off at the beginning, saying the 47-year-old “inexperienced” Illinois senator could not even pose a potential threat to the former first lady, Hillary Rodham Clinton. But, as things stand today, Obama’s popularity is surging day-by-day cutting across the community lines. He has won eight of the nine primaries and caucuses held since Super Tuesday on February 5, while his experienced rival could take only one victory (New Mexico). He has won by much larger margins, both in black and white dominated states. Now more and more corporate houses are ready to pump money into the Obama campaign. The identity politicians and black academia are also fuelling the political debate, although Obama has so far kept himself away from racially-focussed campaigning. Furthermore, his keyword, Change, seems to have shaken up the Democratic campaign as more and more party activists see him as a vibrant better option than Hillary, who is indirectly dubbed as a status-quoist by the Obama camp. So the stage is set for the Illinois senator? Not exactly. Despite Obama’s surging popularity, he is unlikely to win enough number of pledged delegates before the August national convention of the Democratic Party. If neither Obama nor Clinton wins 2,025 delegates, necessary to take the nomination after the final Democratic caucus in Puerto Rico on June 7, the 795 democratic insiders, known as Super-Delegates, would elect the candidate. Since the Super-Delegates are not bound by the popular will, they could pick up anybody who enjoys greater influence within the party.

The Super- Delegates (the country’s Democratic governors, Democratic members of the Congress and the high-ranking party officials) were instituted in 1982 in order to give the elite more control over the common activists. Sensing the danger lurking in the August convention, the Obama campaign has already called on the Super- Delegates to follow the popular opinion. So far, Clinton has got the support of more Super-Delegates than Obama. However, a majority of them, including influential Democrats like Al Gore, haven’t opened their mind. In such a complex, emotional scenario, in which a black Democrat is moving past his rival, the wife of a two-time president, could the Democratic leadership override the popular opinion? Wouldn’t that traumatise the entire Democratic party in the November presidential race? Recent events indicate that the wind has changed its direction. Veteran Vietnam war hero John McCain will be the Republican candidate. The senior leaders of the Democratic party seem to have realised that the party cannot go against the ground level activists. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has publicly admitted this. “It would be a problem for the party if the verdict would be something different than the public has decided,” said Pelosi in an interview last week, giving enough indication that she would support Obama. Furthermore, veteran black Representative John Lewis, snubbed Hillary last week to declare his support for Obama. Yes, Obama is gaining momentum. If his own party elite don’t block him, he might emerge as potential rival to Republican challenge.

John Stanly (Published in Business and Economy, 06,03, 2008)

She’s back in the race

Former US President Bill Clinton called Barack Obama a “kid” ahead of the Nevada Caucus. His wife & Democratic contender for presidential nomination, Hillary Clinton, said that electing Obama would tantamount to electing “another Bush” to the White House. On the eve of the Caucus, the Hillary camp complained that their supporters in the state’s unions were threatened by the union leaders, who backed Obama. The Obama backers hit back saying they received many telephone calls, which made continuous references to “Barack Hussein Obama.” Nevada saw it all. Still, Obama, the charismatic Illinois Senator who changed the entire arithmetic of Democratic contest, could not defeat the former first lady in Nevada.

What went wrong for Obama? He failed to keep up the hype, set by his own media managers, as the campaign spread to other parts of the country. His vulnerability to attract different demographic votes was visible in New Hampshire & Nevada. Although the Obama camp, having understood this fact, attacked the Clintons, saying they haven’t done much for the Hispanic community, it failed to pay. The Hispanic groups, the growing number of Democratic supporters, voted for Clinton in large numbers. She could also walk away with women votes as Obama managed to retain support of the blacks. Obama’s stunning Iowa victory has started to fade away with his straight losses in New Hampshire & Nevada.

“The Clinton-Obama contest is a fascinating showpiece of American political theatre. In addition to the male/female and black/white aspects, the personalities embody a contrast, few other countries embrace that of new v/s old & change v/s continuity. I cannot think of any country apart from the USA where political experience is an electoral liability. The two leading contenders for the democratic nomination, embody these observations, and Obama is praised for his strong commitment to “change” without defining what this means while Clinton emphasises her “experience” without convincingly demonstrating that she has any. It’s American, it’s “show business”, and it’s exciting, even if somewhat primitive,” Dr. Robert


McGeehan, an associate fellow at Chatham House, told B&E. The next Obama-Clinton fight will be on January 26 in South Carolina where the black community is crucial factor. Though the black voters were loyal to the Clintons since the first presidency of Bill, this time, according to the polls, Obama is more popular among them. A victory on Saturday is crucial for Obama to go to the Super Tuesday campaigns with confidence. Obama hasn’t so far played his racial cards vigorously, which many analysts say is a “strategic error.” Would he take them out in pretty American style? Well, let’s wait and see.

John Stanly (published in Business and Economy, 7/2/08)