Vietnam Comes Back To Haunt...

"The price of America's withdrawal (from Vietnam) was paid by millions of innocent citizens, whose agonies would add to our vocabulary new terms like boat people, re-education camps and killing fields," so said US President George W. Bush in an unexpected attempt to draw parallels between the Iraq war and America’s cold war nightmare in Vietnam. In Bush’s view, an immediate withdrawal of the U.S. troops from the war-torn

Iraq would lead to serious consequences in that country. He hinted that Iraqis would have to undergo the similar “sufferings” of the Vietnamese people under the Communist regime. Moreover, Bush argued that if the US gets out of Iraq when the threat of militancy looms large over the West Asian country that would affect the credibility and morale of the US in its global “war on terrorism.”

So far the critics of the Bush administration have called the Iraq fiasco, the Vietnam of President Bush. And the supporters of the war, particularly the neo-cons in the administration resisted any move to draw parallels between the most contentious two wars in the history of the US. As things stand so, why this change of tone? Now, one might wonder as Bush himself accepts this analogy. Though Bush helped his enemies revive the old debate over the Iraq-Vietnam wars, his intentions look different from that of his detractors. The president is trying to shift the entire focus from Iraq invasion to the presumed consequences of an immediate withdrawal. Many US watchers are of the view that Bush’s risky game with historical examples is aimed at wining the support of the conservatives, who, still, believe that the Vietnam withdrawal was the manifest of vulnerability of the American political class.

If the critics used the Vietnam comparison to expose the flaws of Bush’s Iraq policy, the president invoked the so-called post-withdrawal miseries of the Vietnamese to defend his “stay the course” policy. “The Vietnam fiasco had serious consequences in US. The US lost its credibility among its own allies. President Bush doesn’t want to repeat the same. He believes the war in Iraq is winnable and he wants to get the job done. In another words, he was telling his critics: don’t tell me to repeat Vietnam in Iraq by withdrawing troops prematurely,” Prof. Chinthamani Mahapatra of Jawaharlal Nehru University told B&E. Bush has made plain that the White House would not show its green signal to any troop cut so long as he remains in power. “Unlike Vietnam, Iraq is more than ideological. Vietnam doesn’t have oil where as Iraq plays a central role in America’s grand energy plans. Bush doesn’t want to lose that,” Prof Mahapatra added.

Bush’s remarks have come just one month ahead of the scheduled tabling of the Iraq progress report by Gen. David Petraeus, which is unlikely to sound different from the official stand. Bush will use both the report and Vietnam tp once again befool the public and inform Pentagon that democracy would not be allowed to interfere with military demands.

(Published on Business and Economy, 20 September 2007)

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Political Turmoil In Japan

"In the present situation, it is difficult to push ahead with effective policies that win the support of the public…We need a change in this situation. I find myself unable to keep my [political] promises," said former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on September 12 declaring his decision to step down. Though the decision was inevitable, the timing was surprising. Abe, the grandson of a former prime minister and the son of a former foreign minister, came to power one year back after the Liberal Democratic Party won a landslide victory in the Lower House of the Diet (Parliament). As a prime minister, he started impressively with bold moves to revive the moribund economy and sincere efforts to mend ties with China and South Korea.

However, the 52-year-old prime minister has proven to be a failure in retaining the faith and support of the people who have backed the LDP for more than half a century. The resignation of four ministers over corruption allegations and the suicide of another tainted minister in a short span of time made the Abe government extremely unpopular. Furthermore, his inability to rescue agricultural sector which was badly hit by the structural reforms of the Koizumi government drove away the rural population from Abe. This disaffection of voters was evident when the ruling LDP and its allies lost the Upper House majority to the principal opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). Though the election defeat eroded Abe’s morale to continue in power, the August 27 cabinet reshuffle sent out a different message. The prime minister was expected to continue in office. But, Abe’s unexpected announcement of resignation took everybody by surprise. Many reasons were cited by the Japan watchers for Abe’s abrupt decision including his “ill health” and corruption scandals against him. “The prime minister’s resignation signals that the ‘Old Order’ is emerging powerful in the ruling LDP. The senior leaders, who were very critical of Abe’s neo-conservative policies wanted him to step down soon after the July election debacle. Abe’s subsequent decision to include corrupt leaders into the cabinet made his position more vulnerable within the party. Finally, he had to bow down to the inevitable,” Prof HS Prabhakar of Jawaharlal Nehru University told B&E. The resignation has come a few weeks ahead of the expiring of the “anti-terror law” which currently allows the the Japanese troops to continue to provide logistical support to the US military in Afghanistan. Abe wanted to extend the law, due to expire on November 1. However the ‘Old Order’ in the LDP and the opposition parties were against extending the law.

Anyway, Abe’s resignation has exposed the internal problems within the ruling party. Two leaders, the veteran Yasuo Fukuda and the LDP’s number two Taro Aso have already declared that they wanted to stand in the party election to be held on August 23. It’s widely perceived as a struggle between the Old Order and the New Order in the LDP. “The fundamental question at this point of time is that whether Japan, the most reliable ally of the US in the region, would remain so even after the elections,” said Dr. Prabhakar.

(Published on Business & Economy on September 27, 2007

Stanly Mambilly

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