The Iranian nuclear crisis is unlikely to go quite. It was not long back, the American National Intelligence Estimate said it had “high confidence” that Iran had stopped its nuclear weapon programme in late 2003. This development appeared to have pushed the ‘war talk’ backwards and signalled a somewhat peaceful solution to the controversial nuclear programme. But that did not happen.
With Iran insisting on its “right to enrich uranium” and the West demanding the enrichment be stopped for any further progress in the diplomatic mission, the crisis is again looming large over West Asia. Though European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana visited Tehran on Jun 14 with a proposal of incentives, not many Iran-watchers think that the latest “diplomatic push” would lead to any breakthrough in the nuclear crisis. Tehran rejects the carrot and stick policy of the West. It says “any precondition is unacceptable”. But the US, on the other hand, has made it clear that the diplomatic mission will take off only if Tehran abandons its enrichment activities.
The US, where Iran is featured in a big way in this election year, is apparently building up pressure on Tehran. The Iranian issue was one of the top agenda of US President George W. Bush when he visited Europe last week. Speaking to reporters in Slovenia after meeting European leaders, Bush said: "Iran with a nuclear weapon would be incredibly dangerous for world peace.” In Germany he seemed tougher. Speaking after holding talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel, Bush said he wanted to pursue diplomacy to deal with Iran’s nuclear programme, but “all options are on the table”.
Bush’s remarks cannot be seen as mere isolated threats of a president, who is in his last months in office. On June 6, Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz said military strikes to stop Iran from going nuclear looked “unavoidable”. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, while addressing the AIPAC Policy Conference 2008 on June 3, said the “Iranian threat must be stopped by all possible means”. He emphasized that the economic and political sanctions “are only an initial step”.
Even Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential candidate who earlier proposed to hold direct talks with Tehran, is now echoing President Bush. Speaking to the AIPAC conference, he said he would do “everything in his power” to prevent Iran from going nuclear. So the message is clear. The ‘Iran action plan’, whatever it is, still on the table.
The pressure-building game is on. These all developments indicate that all major powers, the US, Europe and Israel, have resumed discussing different options to deal with Iran. However, Tehran’s response to the European proposal was on expected lines. Iran did not formally reject it, but said its response would depend on how the West reacted to Iran’s May 13 proposal which called for international talks and international inspection of Iran’s nuclear facilities. But it added that the regime would continue to enrich uranium against the wishes of the West. This chilly response seems to have worsened the crisis. Hours after Solana met Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and handed out the proposal, President Bush, who was in Paris, accused Iran of rejecting the “generous offer out of hand”.
The proposal, according to reports, puts forward a precondition that Iran should stop enrichment. Upon that condition, talks between Iran and six world powers – the US, France, Russia, China, UK and Germany. The six countries “will refrain from any new action in the Security Council,” while Iran “will refrain from any new nuclear activity, including the installation of any new centrifuges”.
However, with Iran rejecting any precondition and the US accusing Tehran of rejecting the proposal itself, the impasse is likely to continue. That Iran did not outrightly reject the offer shows that it wants to buy more time. With the Bush presidency is in its waning days, Tehran hopes that it can hold less conditioned talks with a new administration in Washington. But it remains unclear what would be the immediate move of the western countries if Iran formally rejects the offer. Solana has said the world powers had not reached any agreement on more sanctions against Iran. But President Bush during his European trip managed to win the support of the major European countries for harsher sanctions on Iran if it did not stop enrichment. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, in a joint press conference with Bush in London, said on June 16 that the European Union would freeze the overseas assets of Iran’s largest commercial bank, Bank Melli. Some reports say a naval embargo of the Persian Gulf or the refusal to supply western technology needed for Iran’s oil industry are also under consideration.
Earlier this month Iranian media reported that the Islamic regime had started transferring billions of dollars from European banks to Asian Banks, and buying gold and equities to protect its oil revenue. This shows that Iran is also preparing to face more economic hardships. However, the big question is that whether Russia and China would support tougher measures, particularly when oil prices are all-time high. But, if Iran rejects the proposal which seeks a diplomatic solution to the crisis, those who argue for tougher measures would get a say. This tone was visible in Bush’s Paris speech. Speaking in a joint press conference with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Bush said on June 14 that the Iranian response to the proposal was a “clear indication that its leadership was willing to isolate Iranians further”.
The West is unlikely to back off from its key demand: no nuclear enrichment. Iran so far seems to be determined to continue with the enrichment activities. It seems to be sceptical of the promise that the US would cooperate with other world powers to build a nuclear reactor in Iran that would help Iran meet its energy requirements. It has reason to be sceptical of the key western demand that enrichment activities be stopped. Though the previous Iranian president Mohammad Khatami suspended its enrichment activities, it did not lead to any breakthrough.
If both sides continue sticking to their positions, the latest diplomatic initiative will never take off. Rather, the nuclear tussle will lead to an unhealthy confrontation.
With Iran insisting on its “right to enrich uranium” and the West demanding the enrichment be stopped for any further progress in the diplomatic mission, the crisis is again looming large over West Asia. Though European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana visited Tehran on Jun 14 with a proposal of incentives, not many Iran-watchers think that the latest “diplomatic push” would lead to any breakthrough in the nuclear crisis. Tehran rejects the carrot and stick policy of the West. It says “any precondition is unacceptable”. But the US, on the other hand, has made it clear that the diplomatic mission will take off only if Tehran abandons its enrichment activities.
The US, where Iran is featured in a big way in this election year, is apparently building up pressure on Tehran. The Iranian issue was one of the top agenda of US President George W. Bush when he visited Europe last week. Speaking to reporters in Slovenia after meeting European leaders, Bush said: "Iran with a nuclear weapon would be incredibly dangerous for world peace.” In Germany he seemed tougher. Speaking after holding talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel, Bush said he wanted to pursue diplomacy to deal with Iran’s nuclear programme, but “all options are on the table”.
Bush’s remarks cannot be seen as mere isolated threats of a president, who is in his last months in office. On June 6, Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz said military strikes to stop Iran from going nuclear looked “unavoidable”. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, while addressing the AIPAC Policy Conference 2008 on June 3, said the “Iranian threat must be stopped by all possible means”. He emphasized that the economic and political sanctions “are only an initial step”.
Even Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential candidate who earlier proposed to hold direct talks with Tehran, is now echoing President Bush. Speaking to the AIPAC conference, he said he would do “everything in his power” to prevent Iran from going nuclear. So the message is clear. The ‘Iran action plan’, whatever it is, still on the table.
The pressure-building game is on. These all developments indicate that all major powers, the US, Europe and Israel, have resumed discussing different options to deal with Iran. However, Tehran’s response to the European proposal was on expected lines. Iran did not formally reject it, but said its response would depend on how the West reacted to Iran’s May 13 proposal which called for international talks and international inspection of Iran’s nuclear facilities. But it added that the regime would continue to enrich uranium against the wishes of the West. This chilly response seems to have worsened the crisis. Hours after Solana met Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and handed out the proposal, President Bush, who was in Paris, accused Iran of rejecting the “generous offer out of hand”.
The proposal, according to reports, puts forward a precondition that Iran should stop enrichment. Upon that condition, talks between Iran and six world powers – the US, France, Russia, China, UK and Germany. The six countries “will refrain from any new action in the Security Council,” while Iran “will refrain from any new nuclear activity, including the installation of any new centrifuges”.
However, with Iran rejecting any precondition and the US accusing Tehran of rejecting the proposal itself, the impasse is likely to continue. That Iran did not outrightly reject the offer shows that it wants to buy more time. With the Bush presidency is in its waning days, Tehran hopes that it can hold less conditioned talks with a new administration in Washington. But it remains unclear what would be the immediate move of the western countries if Iran formally rejects the offer. Solana has said the world powers had not reached any agreement on more sanctions against Iran. But President Bush during his European trip managed to win the support of the major European countries for harsher sanctions on Iran if it did not stop enrichment. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, in a joint press conference with Bush in London, said on June 16 that the European Union would freeze the overseas assets of Iran’s largest commercial bank, Bank Melli. Some reports say a naval embargo of the Persian Gulf or the refusal to supply western technology needed for Iran’s oil industry are also under consideration.
Earlier this month Iranian media reported that the Islamic regime had started transferring billions of dollars from European banks to Asian Banks, and buying gold and equities to protect its oil revenue. This shows that Iran is also preparing to face more economic hardships. However, the big question is that whether Russia and China would support tougher measures, particularly when oil prices are all-time high. But, if Iran rejects the proposal which seeks a diplomatic solution to the crisis, those who argue for tougher measures would get a say. This tone was visible in Bush’s Paris speech. Speaking in a joint press conference with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Bush said on June 14 that the Iranian response to the proposal was a “clear indication that its leadership was willing to isolate Iranians further”.
The West is unlikely to back off from its key demand: no nuclear enrichment. Iran so far seems to be determined to continue with the enrichment activities. It seems to be sceptical of the promise that the US would cooperate with other world powers to build a nuclear reactor in Iran that would help Iran meet its energy requirements. It has reason to be sceptical of the key western demand that enrichment activities be stopped. Though the previous Iranian president Mohammad Khatami suspended its enrichment activities, it did not lead to any breakthrough.
If both sides continue sticking to their positions, the latest diplomatic initiative will never take off. Rather, the nuclear tussle will lead to an unhealthy confrontation.
John Stanly
