When could he deliver? So ask Americans who see a potential president in Barak Hessein Obama, a senator from Illinois and a charismatic contender for the Democratic presidential nomination. They wrote him off at the beginning, saying the 47-year-old “inexperienced” Illinois senator could not even pose a potential threat to the former first lady, Hillary Rodham Clinton. But, as things stand today, Obama’s popularity is surging day-by-day cutting across the community lines. He has won eight of the nine primaries and caucuses held since Super Tuesday on February 5, while his experienced rival could take only one victory (New Mexico). He has won by much larger margins, both in black and white dominated states. Now more and more corporate houses are ready to pump money into the Obama campaign. The identity politicians and black academia are also fuelling the political debate, although Obama has so far kept himself away from racially-focussed campaigning. Furthermore, his keyword, Change, seems to have shaken up the Democratic campaign as more and more party activists see him as a vibrant better option than Hillary, who is indirectly dubbed as a status-quoist by the Obama camp. So the stage is set for the Illinois senator? Not exactly. Despite Obama’s surging popularity, he is unlikely to win enough number of pledged delegates before the August national convention of the Democratic Party. If neither Obama nor Clinton wins 2,025 delegates, necessary to take the nomination after the final Democratic caucus in Puerto Rico on June 7, the 795 democratic insiders, known as Super-Delegates, would elect the candidate. Since the Super-Delegates are not bound by the popular will, they could pick up anybody who enjoys greater influence within the party.
The Super- Delegates (the country’s Democratic governors, Democratic members of the Congress and the high-ranking party officials) were instituted in 1982 in order to give the elite more control over the common activists. Sensing the danger lurking in the August convention, the Obama campaign has already called on the Super- Delegates to follow the popular opinion. So far, Clinton has got the support of more Super-Delegates than Obama. However, a majority of them, including influential Democrats like Al Gore, haven’t opened their mind. In such a complex, emotional scenario, in which a black Democrat is moving past his rival, the wife of a two-time president, could the Democratic leadership override the popular opinion? Wouldn’t that traumatise the entire Democratic party in the November presidential race? Recent events indicate that the wind has changed its direction. Veteran Vietnam war hero John McCain will be the Republican candidate. The senior leaders of the Democratic party seem to have realised that the party cannot go against the ground level activists. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has publicly admitted this. “It would be a problem for the party if the verdict would be something different than the public has decided,” said Pelosi in an interview last week, giving enough indication that she would support Obama. Furthermore, veteran black Representative John Lewis, snubbed Hillary last week to declare his support for Obama. Yes, Obama is gaining momentum. If his own party elite don’t block him, he might emerge as potential rival to Republican challenge.
John Stanly (Published in Business and Economy, 06,03, 2008)
