Saturday, June 28, 2008

Cracks begin to appear in the US-Pakistan alliance


The June 10 cross border attack by American F-15E fighter bombers on Pakistani paramilitary troops is the latest indication of the changing dynamics of the much discussed US-Pakistani alliance against terrorism.

The attack took place in Mohmand, a dangerous border area, part of Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The US version of the story is simple. Taliban fighters from Mohmand crossed into the Afghan border and unleashed attacks on the coalition troops with rocket-propelled grenade fire. The international troops returned fire and drove the militants back into Pakistan. Then, three US fighter planes crossed the border and dropped about a dozen bombs. The US expressed regrets over the incident. State Department spokesman Gonzalo Gallegos told reporters in Washington that the incident was a reminder that “better cross border communications between forces is vital”.

Is that all? This is not the first time the US jets cross the border and bomb Pakistani people. In March, an American aircraft dropped bombs in South Waziristan, haven of the militants, killing nine people. Similar incidents had occurred in January also. The latest attack comes at a crucial time when the Pakistani government is negotiating a deal with the militants in the borderland, a move that irked the US and its European allies. The change in Islamabad’s counter terrorism strategy, according to many analysts, shook the foundations of the so-called anti-terror alliance between Pakistan and the US.

Islamabad’s response to the Mohmand attack underscored this perception. When Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani denounced the attack as an affront to the country’s “sovereignty, dignity and self-respect” the military’s response was more stunning. The US attack “hit at the very basis of co-operation and sacrifice with which Pakistani soldiers are supporting the coalition in the war against terror”, said a military spokesman. The act was “absolutely unprovoked and cowardly”, he added. The strong response of the Pakistan army makes one thing clear: army has completely moved away from President Pervez Musharraf’s grip. There’s a strong perception in Pakistan, even within its army, that the so-called anti-terror campaign in Waziristan and other border regions is being fought at the behest of the US.

The civilian government appears to hold this view. It says many of the tribal leaders now support the Taliban because of the relentless military raids in the borderland. The government thinks a peace deal with the militants would help it limit their influence within the border districts. However, this policy shift comes at the expense of the US’ interests in South Asia. Holding talks with militants is an anti-thesis to the so-called Bush doctrine, which calls for “eradicating” terror cells through military campaigns. Besides, it undermined Bush’s plan to make headway in its anti-terror campaign in the tribal area before he leaves office by the end of this year.

The frustration was visible as the US many times went public against the Pakistan government in the past three months. NATO, citing figures, stated that there were more cross-border attacks against the coalition troops in Afghanistan in May 2008 comparing to the year-ago period. It added that the peace talks and Pakistani government’s plan to downsize troops in the border region would backfire as the militants were regrouping themselves. The US has also complained that it does not get any military support from Pakistan to continue the fight against Taliban. The Mohmand attack took place against this background. Given the recent developments in the bilateral ties, the bombing is expected to make things more complicated for both sides.

When the Damadola missile attack took place Oct 29, 2006, the Pakistani army suddenly took the responsibility of the attack and actively resisted any attempt to link the US with the incident. The attack on Damadola religious seminary, which killed 82 people, incidentally took place on the same day the provincial government was supposed to sign the Bajour Accord with the local tribes. Many reports at that time claimed that the US, which was opposed to the deal, was behind the attack. But now the scene is different. Both the federal government and army are unlikely to defend the US if any such incident occurs. But, at the same time, many Pakistan-watchers think the US may go to any extend to stop a possible deal with the militants.
It is not yet clear whether the peace talks would bring in any result. Even the Pakistani government’s counter terror strategy looks vague. But, Islamabad seems to be determined to honour its pledges to break with the Musharraf regime. Of course, a bad news for the Americans.
(John Stanly)